POLITICAL ANALYSIS

How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice

Emotional Arousal Predicts Voting on the U.S. Supreme Court

A Theory of Statistical Inference for Matching Methods in Causal Research

Why Does the American National Election Study Overestimate Voter Turnout

List Experiments with Measurement Error

Exploring the Dynamics of Latent Variable Models

A Regression-with-Residuals Method for Estimating Controlled Direct Effects

Estimating Smooth Country-Year Panels of Public Opinion

How cross-validation can go wrong and what to do about it

Not so harmless after all : the fixed-effects model

Improving Supreme Court Forecasting Using Boosted Decision Trees

Machine Learning Human Rights and Wrongs: How the Successes and Failures of Supervised Learning Algorithms Can Inform the Debate About Information Effects

Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters

A Multinomial Framework for Ideal Point Estimation

Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals

Comparative Research is Harder Than We Thought: Regional Differences in Experts’ Understanding of Electoral Integrity Questions

Measuring Geographic Distribution for Political Research

Measurement Uncertainty in Spatial Models: A Bayesian Dynamic Measurement Model

Measuring Polarization with Text Analysis: Evidence from the UK House of Commons, 1811–2015

Seeing the Forest through the Trees

A Bounds Approach to Inference Using the Long Run Multiplier

The External Validity of College Student Subject Pools in Experimental Research: A Cross-Sample Comparison of Treatment Effect Heterogeneity

Dynamic Ecological Inference for Time-Varying Population Distributions Based on Sparse, Irregular, and Noisy Marginal Data

Predicting Network Events to Assess Goodness of Fit of Relational Event Models

A Bayesian Split Population Survival Model for Duration Data With Misclassified Failure Events

Testing the Validity of Automatic Speech Recognition for Political Text Analysis

A Local Structure Graph Model: Modeling Formation of Network Edges as a Function of Other Edges

Hierarchical Item Response Models for Analyzing Public Opinion

Relaxing the No Liars Assumption in List Experiment Analyses

Replications in Context: A Framework for Evaluating New Methods in Quantitative Political Science

What Can Instrumental Variables Tell Us About Nonresponse In Household Surveys and Political Polls